Live scoring · Updated continuously

Whale & smart money tracking for Polymarket.

Every whale wallet. Every position. Scored the moment it moves.

We track real Polymarket wallets, weighted by realized profit, not headcount, and run every position through momentum, order flow, and liquidity checks. Every pick ships with a confidence score and a track record you can check.

No spreadsheets. No guesswork. Just scored picks, live.

No card required. Just a free account.

balenafi.app/app/top-picksLive

Fed cuts rates in July

14 whales$184K

YES

Momentum + order flow confirm

Dodgers win NL West

9 whales$96K

YES

Big Tech earnings beat forecast

4 whales$21K

Poseidon research

“Bitcoin above $150K in 2026?”

Verdict: BUY

Will the Fed cut rates in July?

High-conviction pick

$184K in profit-weighted whale positioning on YES. Momentum and order flow both confirm. Room left to move since the last CPI print.

Poseidon deep research

AI research

News, strategy, and risk factors pulled and cross-checked automatically. Entry, sizing, and exit spelled out.

Big Tech earnings beat forecast?

Pump & dump flagged

Sharp spike, early reversal, volume that doesn't back the move. The model reads it as noise, not signal.

What Is Balenafi

Not a bot that copies trades. A scoring model: whale positions weighted by realized profit, not headcount, run through momentum, order flow, liquidity, and pump-and-dump checks, with AI research and exit signals on top. One scored read, in seconds, not a spreadsheet.

New to Prediction Markets?

See exactly what the model scored and why before you place a bet, get an AI case for or against a market in plain English, and log your own trades to track results.

Already Trading Polymarket?

Stop refreshing wallets by hand. Track whale positions live, catch alerts the second the model flags them, and stress-test your thesis against AI research first.

How It Works

Five steps, running continuously, so you don't have to watch the market yourself.

The input is public: Polymarket's own trade history. The scoring model that turns it into a ranked, confidence-scored pick is ours, backtested before it's trusted with real money.

We watch the traders who are actually winning.

Polymarket publishes every trader's position history. We only follow the ones with a real pattern of winning, not a lucky one-off bet.

We weigh conviction, not headcount.

Raw whale count alone backtested as a mildly negative signal, more herding than confirmation. So each position is weighted by that trader's realized profit instead: one whale with a proven edge outweighs three just following a crowd.

We run it through a full scoring model, not a gut check.

We score how much of the thesis is already priced in, which way momentum and order flow lean, and whether there's real liquidity to fill at a fair price. Long-shot prices get discounted: they win around 6% of the time despite implied odds of 15–20%.

We screen out pump-and-dump noise.

Not every price spike is a signal. We watch for the spike-then-reversal pattern typical of a pump and dump and flag it, so volatility doesn't get mistaken for conviction.

You get a ranked list, with the reasoning attached.

Every pick ships with a confidence score and a plain-English breakdown: position weighting, momentum, order flow, liquidity, whatever mattered. No black box. (A same-market conflict bug once caused 43% of our early bad calls, until we backtested our own history and fixed it.)

What You Get

Nine tools built on the same scoring model, each answering a different question.

This is the kind of tooling institutional desks build for themselves and nobody else gets to use. Each tool answers a different question about what's happening in the market right now: together, they turn raw position data into ranked picks, live alerts, AI research, and a way to track your own results, so you're never the last one to find out.

Ranked Picks

Scored Picks

“What's actually worth acting on right now, and why?”

We weigh whale positioning by realized profit, not headcount, run it through momentum, order flow, and liquidity checks, and discount long-shot prices. What's left is scored high, medium, or low confidence.

What you get

A ranked pick with the reasoning behind the score (position weighting, momentum, order flow, liquidity) spelled out in plain English.

See It Live

This is what the model is flagging right now.

A live sample of what rotates through the picks feed — the numbers and reasoning are blurred here, but they're not once you're in.

Ranked pick

Will the ECB hold rates in September?

Whales

Combined value

Confidence

Who Built This

Leon

Founder, Balenafi

I spent eight years as an AI/ML engineer in finance, most recently building risk models for a private equity firm: modeling ordinary investors never get to see.

That work runs on strict discipline: backtest every signal, weight inputs by what's actually predictive, assume your first version has a bug. Private markets keep that discipline locked behind a fund's walls.

Polymarket flips that: every trader's position history is public. So I built the model I'd have built at the fund, pointed at that data: realized-profit weighting instead of headcount, a longshot-price discount, pump-and-dump screening, and bugs fixed the way a trading desk would (a same-market conflict bug alone caused 43% of our early bad calls).

That's Balenafi: fund-grade discipline wrapped in a live signal feed, AI research, and a track record, wins and losses both, that I'm fully willing to show my work on.

Real Trade

Luke

Balenafi user

Luke put $4,000 behind a Balenafi pick on Spain to win the World Cup.

On July 11, 2026, the scanner first flagged “Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” as a low-confidence longshot: 15 whales, $1.5M in combined positioning, entry around 21¢. Over the next eight days, conviction built: by July 19 the same market had 26 whales behind it and $10.5M in combined value, and the pick had matured into a high-confidence call.

Luke bought in that day at 59¢. Spain's win pushed the market to resolution within hours, and he closed out at 99.95¢ the same evening, up $2,776 (+69.4%) on the trade.

$4,000Stake

59¢Entry price

99.95¢Exit price

+$2,776Profit

+69.4%Return

~4.5 hoursHeld for

One trade, not a track record — see every call, win or lose, in the track record section below.

Track Record & Integrity

A track record only means something if you can't rig it.

Prediction markets attract enough hype already. Here's exactly how we keep our own numbers honest.

Every Call Is Logged

The moment a pick is surfaced, it's recorded: confidence level, whale count, entry price, timestamp. Nothing gets added or edited after the fact.

Wins and Losses, Both

Every resolved pick is recorded, win or lose, with no curated highlight reel. We're building up a large enough sample before publishing headline stats: a track record only means something once there's enough of it.

No Cherry-Picked Sample

Resolved outcomes are pulled automatically once a market closes. We don't choose which picks get counted toward the track record.

Public Market Data

Every signal is built from Polymarket's public trade and position data. No private order flow, no paid access, no unfair edge, just a model most people don't have the time or expertise to build.

We Backtest Our Own Mistakes

A same-market conflict bug quietly caused 43% of our early bad calls. Raw whale count alone tested as a losing signal. We found both by backtesting our own history, not by taking the model's word for it, and fixed them the way a trading desk would.

FAQ

Common questions.

Is this financial advice?

No. Balenafi surfaces patterns in public Polymarket trading activity. It's not financial advice, and prediction markets carry real risk of losing your full stake. Always do your own research before betting anything.

What counts as a "whale"?

A trader with a consistently profitable public track record on Polymarket: not a single lucky bet, but a real pattern of winning over time and meaningful position sizes.

Does a high-confidence pick guarantee a win?

No. It's a signal, not a guarantee: even a pick backed by strong whale conviction, momentum, and liquidity can still resolve the other way. That's exactly why every pick ships with a confidence score and why we publish every resolved outcome, wins and losses both.

How often are picks updated?

We continuously scan Polymarket for new whale positions and re-check existing picks as prices and positions change, so confidence scores stay current as markets move.

Where does the data come from?

Entirely from Polymarket's public trade and position data. No private order flow, no paid data access. The edge isn't the data, it's the scoring model we run it through.