Legal
Last updated July 19, 2026
This Risk Disclosure describes important risks of using Balenafi and of trading on prediction markets such as Polymarket. It is part of our Terms of Service. Read it in full, alongside our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, before you rely on anything you see in the Service.
Balenafi analyzes public Polymarket trading activity and presents scored, ranked observations about it. Prediction markets are speculative, and every score, signal, alert, or piece of AI-generated research in the Service is a probabilistic assessment of historical and current public data — not a prediction guaranteed to come true, and not advice tailored to you. You should assume you can lose your entire stake on any position you take, regardless of how the Service scored it.
Nothing in the Service — including confidence scores, whale-consensus signals, the live signal feed, pump-and-dump alerts, AI Recommendations, Poseidon Deep Research reports, or exit signals — takes into account your individual financial circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, tax position, or portfolio. All content is general and informational. Before acting on anything in the Service, consider seeking guidance from a qualified, independent, licensed financial or legal advisor authorized in your jurisdiction, particularly given that prediction-market trading is unregulated or lightly regulated in many places.
Balenafi is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, commodity trading advisor, futures commission merchant, bank, or money transmitter, and it is not registered with or licensed by any financial regulator. We do not hold, custody, or have access to your funds or your Polymarket positions. Using Balenafi does not create any advisory, fiduciary, or brokerage relationship between you and us.
Trading on Polymarket or any prediction market carries substantial risk, including:
Our scoring model weights whale positioning by traders' realized, historical profitability, adjusts for factors like how much of a move is already priced in, broader market momentum, volume trends, liquidity, and long-shot pricing, and screens for pump-and-dump price patterns. It is backtested against historical outcomes, but:
AI Recommendations and Poseidon Deep Research are produced by large language models and, for Poseidon, live web search. These systems can misread source material, cite outdated or incorrect information, miss important context, or state incorrect facts confidently ("hallucinate"). AI-generated verdicts, theses, and suggested entry/exit strategies are a synthesis of available signals at the time of generation, not independent professional research, and must be independently verified before you rely on them.
Any track record, win rate, resolved-pick statistics, or historical performance figures we publish reflect past results only and are not indicative of future performance. Where we note that our sample of resolved calls is still small, results may not yet be statistically meaningful, and future results — over a larger sample or in different market conditions — may be materially worse.
Balenafi does not operate Polymarket and has no control over, and accepts no responsibility for, Polymarket's platform availability, smart contracts, custody arrangements, market resolution decisions, fee structure, or terms of service. Any funds you trade with on Polymarket are held and controlled entirely outside Balenafi, in a wallet and platform you choose and are responsible for securing.
Whale-tracking data is derived from public on-chain and API data published by Polymarket. This data can be delayed, incomplete, or occasionally misattributed — for example, a single real-world trader may control multiple wallets, or a wallet's history may not fully capture that trader's complete position or intent. We work to identify and filter low-quality signals, but we cannot guarantee that every wallet we treat as a "whale" reflects a single, consistently skilled trader, or that our data is complete or free of error.
The legal status of prediction markets, event contracts, and similar instruments varies significantly by country and, within some countries, by state or region, and is an actively evolving area of law. It is your sole responsibility to determine whether it is lawful for you to access whale-tracking data, receive trade signals, or trade on Polymarket where you live, and to comply with all applicable law, including any tax obligations arising from your trading activity. Balenafi does not provide legal or tax advice and does not verify your eligibility to trade on any third-party platform.
No content in the Service — including a "High" confidence badge, a favorable AI verdict, or a resolved track record of past wins — guarantees that any future position will be profitable. High-confidence picks have lost, and will lose, in the future. You should only risk money you can afford to lose in full.
You are solely responsible for every trading decision you make, whether or not it follows a signal, score, or piece of AI-generated content from Balenafi. You should independently verify any information before acting on it, size positions according to your own risk tolerance, and consider consulting an independent, licensed advisor. Balenafi is not liable for any trading losses, and our Terms of Service (Sections 13 and 14) limit our liability in connection with your use of the Service.
By using the Service, you acknowledge that you have read and understood this Risk Disclosure, that you understand prediction-market trading can result in the total loss of your funds, and that you are relying on your own judgment — not on Balenafi as an adviser — in any trading decision you make.
Questions about this Risk Disclosure can be sent to legal@balenafi.com.
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